Since I created a WARR chart recently to visualise winning score for an interrupted LOI, it wasn’t too difficult to adapt it for a Test 4th Innings chase.
First chart depicts India chasing at Adelaide:
1) a straight line for 364 is clearly the final hurdle to overcome.
2) a thin black line shows the number of runs to score for given number of wickets lost (based on losing no more than 9 wickets) assuming entire team will bat.
3) a thicker green line shows the number of runs to be scored if we expect top 7 batsmen to get all the required runs (in other words, lose no more than 5 wickets).
4) a Red/Blue worm from ball-by-ball data with a purple dot for every FoW.
Using only 4th Innings data, India should be 66/1, 131/2, 195/3, 256/4 and 312/5 after which I expect #6 and #7 to get the team to 364. For a narrow 1 wkt win, 188/4, 229/5, 268/6, 300/7, 324/8 and 347/9 will do (in general and may be not by a fragile Indian lower order)
The worm turns red, or in favour of India, when Vijay/Kohli took India past 144. (Remember these values are for a 1 wkt win). If we want batsmen to do the job then 195/2 was the first instance when India was ahead. This was true only between 195/2 through 242/3. The loss of Vijay/Rahane put Australia ahead from which India never recovered. The worm remains RED until 304/6 expecting the tail to get remaining 60 runs. 304/7 onwards, we find Aus back in front.
Other chart is South Africa chasing 458 against India where top 7 are either going to do the job or shut shop to get a draw. India is ahead until 197/4 when a big partnership starts. At 287/4 we expect Saf to win by a wicket. To win by 5 wickets, 392 is the par score to lose the fifth and last wkt. South Africa comfortably ahead at 402 when they lost 5th wicket. 6th fell at 407. They kept going until 442/7. After this the worm flattens where they shut shop to ensure a draw.
I know that Saf chose draw because only one more batsman, a typical Jack remained in the hut with other one injured so losing 8th could have been curtains. In that sense they were not using the par values from this chart. But in case a team wants to avoid drama on 5th day last session then here are the numbers to plan a chase.