The home page of Relative Value Model’s ICC Cricket World Cup 2015. This page provides links to corresponding Tweet/YouTube video. A tweet will contain one or more charts. A YouTube video displays a chart updated after each ball. Tournament summary below the links.
Match by Match Links
Final – Nzl 183(45); AUS 186/3(33.1)
2nd Semi-Final – AUS 328/7(50); Ind 233(46.5)
1st Semi-Final – Saf 281/5(43); NZL 299/6(42.5) Pulse Video
4th Quarter final – NZL 393/6(50); Win 250(30.3) Guptill 237*
3rd Quarter-Final – Pak 213(49.5); AUS 216/4(33.5)
2nd Quarter final – IND 302/6(50); Bng 193(45)
1st Quarter final – Slk 133(37.2); SAF 134/1(18)
42nd match, Pool B – Ire 237(50); PAK 241/3(46.1)
41st match, Pool B – Uae 175(47.4); WIN 176/4(30.3)
40th match, Pool A – Sco 130(25.4); AUS 133/3(15.2)
39th match, Pool B – Zim 287(48.5); IND 288/4(48.4) Pulse Video
38th match, Pool A – Afg 111/7(36.2); ENG 101/1(18.1)
37th match, Pool A – Bng 288/7(50); NZL 290/7(48.5) Pulse Video
36th match, Pool B – SAF 341/6(50); Uae 195(47.3)
35th match, Pool A – SLK 363/9(50); Sco 215(43.1)
34th match, Pool B – Ire 259(49); IND 260/2(36.5)
33rd match, Pool A – BNG 275/7(50); Eng 260(48.3)
32nd match, Pool A – AUS 376/9(50); Slk 312(46.2)
31st match, Pool A – Afg 186(47.4); NZL 188/4(36.1)
30th match, Pool B – IRE 331/8(50); Zim 326(49.3)
29th match, Pool B – PAK 222(46.4); Saf 202(33.3)
28th match, Pool B – Win 182(44.2); IND 185/6(39.1)
27th match, Pool A – Sco 318/8(50); BNG 322/4(48.1)
26th match, Pool A – AUS 417/6(50); Afg 142(37.3)
25th match, Pool B – PAK 339/6(50); Uae 210/8(50)
24th match, Pool B – SAF 411/4(50); Ire 210(45)
23rd match, Pool B – PAK 235/7(50); Zim 215(49.4)
22nd match, Pool A – Eng 309/6(50); SLK 312/1(47.2)
21st match, Pool B – Uae 102(31.3); IND 104/1(18.5)
20th match, Pool A – Aus 151(32.2); NZL 152/9(23.1) Pulse Video
19th match, Pool B – SAF 408/5(50); Win 151(33.1)
18th match, Pool A – SLK 332/1(50); Bng 240(47)
17th match, Pool A – Sco 210(50); AFG 211/9(49.3) Pulse Video
16th match, Pool B – Uae 278/9(50); IRE 279/8(49.2)
15th match, Pool B – WIN 372/2(50); Zim 289(44.3) Gayle 215
14th match, Pool A – ENG 303/8(50); Sco 184(42.2)
13th match, Pool B – IND 307/7(50); Saf 177(40.2)
12th match, Pool A – Afg 232(49.4); SLK 236/6(48.2)
10th match, Pool B – WIN 310/6(50); Pak 160(39)
9th match, Pool A – Eng 123(33.2); NZL 125/2(12.2)
8th match, Pool B – Uae 285/7(50); ZIM 286/6(48)
7th match, Pool A – BNG 267(50); Afg 162(42.5)
6th match, Pool A – Sco 142(36.2); NZL 146/7(24.5)
5th match, Pool B – Win 304/7(50); IRE 307/6(45.5)
4th match, Pool B – IND 300/7(50); Pak 224(47)
3rd match, Pool B – SAF 339/4(50); Zim 277(48.2)
2nd match, Pool A – AUS 342/9(50); Eng 231(41.5)
1st match, Pool A – NZL 331/6(50); Slk 233(46.1)
* * *
The end of a World Cup marks the beginning of a new cycle. Seniors retire indicating no further appetite for plenty of bi-laterals until the next marquee event. Some of the established stars and the promising talent will get 4 more years to hone their skills for the next big stage. On the other hand, an exception like Tharindu Kaushal will make a debut at the quarterfinal stage. A veteran like Vettori may get recalled for one last hurrah despite lack of games leading into the tournament. A non-veteran like Grant Elliott gets another chance years after making the debut. Players like Boult and Mohit Sharma get selected on the basis of recent form instead of experience. In general, a team is likely to field a settled core of experienced players with depth in each department while incorporating a few talented inexperienced players to represent the nation at the World Cup.
I am going to compare the performance of a player during these 6-9 games (that have a higher recall value) against his own performances between CWC11 and CWC15 with a cut-off of 20 ODIs. A chart for batting and bowling per team where all-rounders get included in both.
Let us begin with UAE. This Associate team did not feature a single player with an experience of 20 ODIs between 2011 and 2015. I am in favour of more ODIs for plenty of lower ranked teams throughout the cricket season and not limited to the festive season. In an earlier post about 28 team World Cup, I recommended that top 8 test nations, in groups of 2, should separately host 5 teams each alternately over two home seasons. Associates to feature in a few official ODIs while participating in host nation’s domestic tournaments. Back to UAE. Well no comparative charts for UAE because we do not have a decent sample to compare their performances. Is it a co-incidence that they not only failed to win any match but also earned the wooden spoon in performance measures?
Scotland was the other team with no wins. At least they had a core of 4 experienced players. We begin with Majid Haq and Berrington in their bowling hat. Note: Click on the tweet to view a larger image.
All World Cup matches are given higher weight. Hence a player performing at par will appear to have put in an above average performance at CWC. Majid Haq bowled in 21 matches before the World Cup with good consistency indicated by a very thin blue box. Not unexpectedly, against stronger opposition, he was not consistent. But overall in the 4 matches where he got an opportunity, he has improved. If you are keen to find out how Josh Davey, Alastair Evans, Iain Wardlaw and Rob Taylor performed, you need to click on ‘Sco’ link under Pool A in the table at the top of this post.
Preston Mommsen improved on all four averages: Q1, Q3, Arithmetic Average and Geometric Average. His consistency improved too evident by a much thinner blue box. On other hand Calum Macleod, expected to be the lead batsmen, had a very bad series: 48 runs in 63 balls over 6 innings. Majid Haq also improved with the bat but from a very low base.
Captain Mohammad Nabi performed below expectations. Dawlat Zadran improved considerably. Mirwais Ashraf improved well in the two matches he played but his presence on the right hand side of chart indicates that he was not an automatic choice despite the 20+ ODIs played. Again, if you are interested in the performances of Shapoor Zadran and Hamid Hassan then click on the ‘Afg’ link under Pool A above.
Samiullah Shenwari had a very good series with the bat and was the top performer for Afghanistan along with bowler Shapoor Zadran. Mohammad Nabi was expected to be the leader with both bat and ball but disappointed. Mirwais Ashraf improved well in the two matches he played.
Zimbabwe also won a solitary game against the lowest performing team in its pool. They feature at the bottom on all performance measures as a collective bowling unit. Individually, Chatara and Sean Williams improved well from a low base. Even less was expected off Chigumbura and Masakadza. They ended up performing even worse at the World Cup or in other words they were taken apart by top nations.
Brendan Taylor was one of the top performers at the group stage justifying his place as the top batsman for Zimbabwe. Sean Williams was expected to give him good support and he did so admirably and makes the Top 5 in the Relative Value Model’s list of all-rounders.
Ireland beat 2 test playing nations to finish fifth in Pool B above Zimbabwe. None of the experienced bowlers performed above expectation during the six group matches. All-rounder Kevin O’Brien was the best amongst 3 bowlers with 20+ ODI games before the World Cup. Alex Cusack, John Mooney & Andy McBrine are not featured here due to insufficient games.
Kevin O’Brien and Paul Stirling were expected to be the best with bat for Ireland. Both scored at run a ball but either side of 150 runs in 6 Innings is not sufficient. Ed Joyce scored an 80 and a 100 in wins over West Indies and Zimbabwe but completely failed against South Africa and India. Porterfield’s best was against losses to Pakistan and India. He scored in double digits but 4 of these were under 40. These two could have been more consistent. Batting primarily at #6, Gary Wilson’s best knock was in the win against UAE. Also a cameo in the high scoring thriller with Zimbabwe. Collectively it was a mixed bag. They did well to win 3 matches but would have backed themselves to do better in the other 3 at least to minimise the margin of loss.
England failed to qualify for knockouts. Enough has appeared in print and online. Suffice to say Relative Value Model ranked Finn, Jordan and Tredwell higher than Broad but he was the only automatic selection. Anderson was expected to be the pick of the bowlers but he had a series to forget.
One would expect more than 4 batsmen to have played over 20 ODIs before the major tournament but England’s selection policy is not under discussion here. Let us move on to the quarter-finalists.
Bangladesh qualified at the expense of England. The top 3 bowlers expected to do well lifted their performance especially Mortaza followed by Rubel Hossain. Shakib consistently ranks amongst the top players in the Relative Value Model’s unpublished measures. He maintained his level but the expectations were higher.
Shakib was expected to be the best batsman too. He raised his level a bit but not as much as Mushfiqur. Most notable mention goes to Mahmudullah who was the least ranked batsman for Bangladesh which is evident from his right most appearance in the chart. Tamim was expected to do much more at the top of the innings. Anamul & Nasir Hossain did not make much of the two chances they got.
Jerome Taylor did not play enough ODIs to qualify for these comparisons. Kemar Roach was the top performer in CWC 2011 for West Indies and expected to lead the attack based on his performances before the World Cup. He seriously underperformed in the three matches he bowled. Jason Holder did extremely well. Andre Russell too was good as an all-rounder. Chris Gayle, the bowler, was a surprise.
Chris Gayle, the batsman, was ranked very low. Barring the double hundred, he performed along those limited expectations. None of the batsmen raised the performance levels at this event but managed to win big when they could to ensure that Ireland did not take their place in the knockouts.
Tharindu Kaushal was handed a debut at the quarterfinal stage which shows that Sri Lanka could not field a settled core for a variety of reasons. None of the bowlers had an outstanding series and relatively Malinga and Angelo Mathews were better than others.
On the other hand, Kunar Sangakkara had an OUTSTANDING series with the bat. Dilshan did well but not as well as he did in the previous World Cup. Angelo Mathews was decent in his supporting role. Jayawardene would have liked to match Kumar especially against the stronger opposition. Thirimanne was inconsistent. Tharanga and Chandimal got a chance to bat only once each.
Pakistan was handicapped. Only three bowlers had played over 20 ODIs and their case was very different from England. Shahid Afridi was outstanding in the 2011 World Cup but failed this time. Irfan justified his place as top bowler for Pakistan but it was Wahab Riaz who contributed at a high level consistently in all the matches.
Misbah-ul-Haq scored 350 runs in 466 balls. Any Absolute Value Model will mark down such slow batting efforts. Relative Value Model evaluates each innings in the context of the match. Such performance in high scoring games will not get many points but it is different when both teams struggle to reach 250 in completed innings. According to Relative Value Model, Misbah-ul-Haq raised his game during the tournament and was the star batsman for Pakistan. Sarfraz Ahmed did very well in the 3 matches he got a chance to play unlike Nasir Jamshed who had the worst series. Afridi disappointed with the bat too and Shehzad could have done better.
Before the tournament I had expected a semi-final lineup of Aus vs Ind and SA vs NZ. It turned out that way by accident. I expected Australia and South Africa to top their respective pools. Neither did. In fact, South Africa lost thrice in the tournament.
Dale Steyn was expected to be the top bowler for South Africa. He will still be the go to bowler for defending 12 runs in the last over. It was disappointing that he had an ordinary series in the light of this strong performances between the two world cups. Morkel raised his game. imran Tahir was the pick of the bowlers.
de Villiers had an outstanding series. Hashim Amla had a very ordinary series. de Kock was inconsistent. du Plessis and Miller performed above expectations perhaps due to failure at the top giving them more chances to bat. Hashim Amla is the top performer in an ODI once every 5 times. de Villiers is the top performer in an ODI once every 5 times. When one outperforms, generally the other is not too far behind. The underperforming duo of Amla & Steyn could be the reason why South Africa lost 3 of the 8 matches played.
India won 7 games in a row dismissing the opposition every time. Shami and Yadav exceeded themselves. Shami was the most consistent bowler picking wickets at either end of the innings. Ashwin did the same role that Tahif performed for South Africa. Mohit Sharma is not listed due to insufficient games but he too excelled in his role of the first change bowler. Compared to these 4, Jadeja was the weak link. But he too on an average performed near his par.
Shikhar Dhawan, Dhoni, Rohit Sharma and Raina performed above expectation with bat. Kohli was expected to be the top batsman for India. He had a disappointing series like Amla. He kept getting the starts but it was unlike him to not convert some of them to become the top performer in the match. Just like Amla and de Villiers he too finishes as the top player once every 5 games. Before the tournament, I expected India to win one of the 2 opening games, finish second in the group and win the quarter-final. The odds of beating the hosts were low but a semi-final finish gave a good account of the team. That India performed very well as a unit, without heroics from an individual, was a pleasant surprise. The semi-final finish after that performance was underwhelming.
New Zealand won 8 out of 8 at home. Boult and Vettori did not play enough games hence they are not part of the comparison. Southee had an outstanding tournament in 2011. He had a relatively quiet series this time. Corey Anderson was admirable as fourth bowler after the first three had done sufficient damage.
Brendan McCullum can get a very good start. But he fails often. He was not expected to the top performer for New Zealand. Kane Williamson, Corey Anderson and Ross Taylor were the best batsmen coming into the tournament. None of them had an outstanding series. It was compensated by McCullum, Guptill and Elliott. While Indians performed as a unit without outstanding effort from any player, the Kiwis won their matches on the back of 3 exceptional bowlers and 3 outstanding batsmen.
Doherty featured in a single match not picking any wickets. Starc was expected to be the top performer for Australia. He improved beyond expectation during this series. Johnson was expected to the consistent performer just behind Starc. He was consistent and very very good. Faulkner was expected to put in solid efforts maintaining consistency at a lower level. He was inconsistent but excellent in the games where he performed. Watson was below par but it did not matter. Maxwell was OK with the ball in his role as an all-rounder.
Watson, Clarke and Warner were expected to lead the batting. Stability was found only after moving Watson down the order to make way for the star performer Steven Smith. Clarke was not consistent but Warner had a good series. Finch was alright compared to his par but Maxwell made hay when the sun shone. Australia was clinical in the knock out games to take the title.
Relative Value Model relies on aggregate performances. It is difficult to separate performance from luck in a single match but as the sample size increases one can get a better understanding of the relative performance levels of an individual. Just as change is the only constant, failure is the only certainty. Hence performances are evaluated using 4 different averages accounting for abject failures. Which brings us to the summary for this World Cup:
Steven Smith, Mitchell Starc (Australia)
Brendan McCullum, Trent Boult (New Zealand)
Virat Kohli (India)
Mohammad Shami (India)
Hashim Amla, Dale Steyn (South Africa)
Misbah-ul-Haq, Wahab Riaz (Pakistan)
Kumar Sangakkara (Sri Lanka)
Jason Holder (West Indies)
Mahmadullah, Mashrafe Mortaza (Bangladesh)
James Anderson (England)
Brendan Taylor, Sean Williams (Zimbabwe)
In other words, England and South Africa should be disappointed. India may rue the missed opportunity. All other teams should be elated/satisfied depending on the stage they reached.